Clutchiness
11 August 2006
  FanGraphs Grows
The excellent FanGraphs, which supplies the updates for LI and WPA that make this place possible, has gotten even better. In addition to tracking WPA for this season, they have added WPA data and game graphs for 2002-2005.

As highlighted by tangotiger, check out David Ortiz' 2005, and compare to this year's leaders:

Ortiz 2005 WPA: +8.48 wins
Pujols current WPA: +6.66 wins

Ortiz 2005 clutchiness: +3.6 wins
Jenkins current clutchiness: +2.235 wins

Just going by the jumps I've noticed while doing this site, I'd venture that Pujols has a shot at besting the WPA mark, but that clutchiness number is likely out of reach for either Geoff or Albert. Tango, who has had an eye on this sort of thing far longer than I have, ventures it to be "likely... one of the greatest clutch seasons of all time."

So check out the "new" FanGraphs data for yourself. From Barry Bonds' monster 2004 to Cristian Guzman costing the Nats more than 4 games, there are all sorts of stories waiting to be retold through WPA.
 
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Clutch hitting may or may not exist. Clutchiness most certainly does. By comparing a player's value in terms of win probability to his projected value based on OBP and SLG, we see how much he has over- or under-performed expectations due to performance in higher leverage situations. If clutch exists, it might just look like this.

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Author: Dan Smith
Email: clutchinessatmacdotcom
More Me: http://dan-smith.info

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